Shuarian’s Weblog

Quite a few of my posts this year covered the US elections, so it seemed only fitting to end this year with some final thoughts on the general election.

The Election

Looking back, there were some key events which I think shaped the race. Among them are the 50 state strategy as well as the grass- and netroots. The 50 state strategy helped leveraging Obama’s financial and organisational advantage (which was helped by a massive grassroots movement; the Obama campaign had over 3.95 million individual donors) even more, putting him in a situation to compete almost everywhere. And even though the Democratic Primary took longer and was more fierce than most observers had anticipated, this helped to channel media attention to Obama and help him build his voter turnout programme.

Almost as amazing as Obama’s constant rise from community organizer to Senator and eventual winner of the US Presidential Elections are the many up and downs of John McCain during the race. He started as the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination but was almost written off by everyone near the end of 2007. Yet he managed a staggering comeback and in the end secured the nomination. Then, however, his early favourables from his comeback and his image as a sane and bipartisan maverick faded away gradually. As his pick of Sarah Palin didn’t help him among Democratic women dissatisfied with Obama’s nomination and her bewildering incompetence and unpreparedness became obvious, he quickly shifted his strategy towards a more far-right approach to secure a high turnout of the Republican core base, by running very negative attacks on Barack Obama. In doing so, McCain further damaged his public image. Not helping, of course, was the economic crisis and McCains unsteady ("erratic") response to it.

In conclusion, by the ill-advised selection of Sarah Palin, McCain’s strategy became relied solely to a high turnout among far-right conservatives, which dramatically decreased his ability to appeal to Independents and moderate Republicans and only narrowed the playfield of states. This allowed Obama to be relatively independent in his strategic decisions and yield full advantage of his organisational and financial resources and, on a message level, tie his opponent to the out-of-favour scare tactics of George W. Bush and contrast that with his own message of hope and change.

The Map

Obama/Biden won over McCain/Palin with 365 over 173 Electoral Votes (EV). My prediction of 329 to 209 was off by 36 EVs. These come from North Carolina (15 EVs and a damn close victory by Obama of just 13′000 votes, or 0.0003%), one of Nebraska’s congressional EV (McCain carried the state safely by 15%, yet Nebraska divides its 5 EVs further) and Ohio (20 EVs, which I got wrong badly, as the state fell comfortably for Obama by 4%).

A big surprise was Pennsylvania, where Obama won by 11%. Both campaings (esp. McCain’s) had targeted the state extensively. Maybe their internal numbers were both way off, or perhaps Obama succeeded at luring McCain to focus his efforts there.

Its Meaning

Taking a look at the bigger picture, Obama’s victory was a clear landslide. Besides the deciding Electoral Votes, he also managed to win the popular vote by a margin of 6% - a sign of the broad support Obama enjoyed.

Source: Washington Post

Compared to the elections of 2000 and 2004, he was able to leave the traditional path to victory which hangs on one or two battleground states for a far more independent and open race, competing everywhere but the most Republican ardent southern states; something I’m doubtful Hillary Clinton could have done.

It’s interesting to note that despite his landslide victory, Obama lost the overall white vote

Source: Dailykos.com

However, it should be noted that, apart from Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996, this is the best showing of any Democratic candidate since Jimmy Carter. What’s important is his high margin among the youth, as well as his more than comfortable lead among Latinos (whose support for him had been questioned throughout the election). Interestingly, he also won among the high income (earning at least $100,000 a year) voters, which traditionally favour the Republican candidate.

The Appointments

Obama has already made a number of appointments to his new Cabinet. From my view, the selections so far have been mostly encouraging. Among them, three stand out specifically:

Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State will bring her experience, network and prominence to an area where the United States has much to do. Robert Gates will stay as Defense Secretary and will be able to continue his vital role in reforming and shaping the inner workings of the Department of Defense and its strategy.

Steven Chu (Department of Energy) and Eric Shinseki (Secretary of Veterans Affairs) both again show that Obama values people with experience and a good track record - Steven Chu actually is a noble prize winner in physics.

Other appointments look like solid picks, eg. Eric Holder as Attorney General, Tom Daschle for Secretary of Health and Human Services, Timothy Geithner as Secretary of the Treasury and Hilda Solis at the Secretary of Labor - and no, I don’t view liking both Geithner and Solis as contradiction.

I’m a bit sceptical of Bill Richardson as Secretary of Commerce, although I can see the reasons for putting him there. Tom Vilsack as Secretary of Agriculture is a wildcard which could turn out to be very good, or equally very bad.

[UPDATE 2009-01-10: Bill Richardson has since then withdrawn his acceptance as nominee for Secretary of Commerce, citing a pending legal investigation as reason. Good.]

I also very much like Emmanuel Rahm as Chief of Staff, he seems to be smart and tough, which serves that position well.

A good list of appointments and their backgrounds is available on Wikipedia

The Future

Make no mistake, Obama won’t be able to single-handedly make good on all his promises and please everyone on his way; there are quite a few difficult challenges ahead. I do, however, have confidence in Obama to tackle these challenges in a serious and deliberate manner. The way in which he handles the transition with the current Administration certainly justifies this, and his continuing online presence is promising, one example is the change.gov website.

Among the biggest issues right now are the economic recession at home and around the world (including a pending bailout of the big three US car makers, which could become a quite unpopular and polarising matter), the threat of further destabilisation in the Middle (Israeli, Palestine, Iraq, Iran come to mind, and don’t forget possible unrest in Egypt and Saudi Arabia) and Far (the widely re-talibanised Afghanistan, the nearly bankrupt Pakistan, and India) East. Closer at home, Mexico also has troubling times. The challenges of Africa remain as big as ever, and China and Russia are still trying to find their places in the world (as does, one could argue, the European Union).

On the positive side, the Obama administration hopefully will restore the constitutional rights, close the Guantanamo detention camp and forbid torture, and thus restore America’s role and standing in the world. We may also see a greater cooperation between nations. Scientific and artistic education may flourish, as the bad economical situation repels students. And if we’re lucky we also may see some much needed open discussion about the general directions we want to follow.